UDM-BOUND: William Ruto
The Interim Independent Electoral Commission is in a position to organise a mini-election to replace Eldoret North MP William Ruto and the 10 or so rebel MPs if they are stripped of their ODM party membership.
Suspended Higher Education Minister William Ruto and 30 of his allies in ODM risk losing their seats if the party succeeds in stripping them of their party membership.
Last week ODM filed a constitutional application at the High Court seeking to strip Ruto, Charles Keter, Isaac Rutto, Aden Duale and Joshua Kuttuny of both their party membership and their parliamentary seats.
The petition by two party members was filed by lawyer Cecil Miller, of Miller & Company Advocates, and the success of the suit could result in a mini general election.
Strategists for the Ruto group say at least 10 other ODM MPs will resign if Ruto and his allies are stripped of their membership and therefore their parliamentary seats.
The strategists say the mass resignations would deny ODM the slight majority it currently enjoys over its coalition partner PNU in the House. They hope to eventually force out Prime Minister Raila Odinga. “If ODM has decided that we have to go, we shall go. But I want to warn my brother Raila that he will live to regret this,” Ruto said.
He said every resource will be mobilised to ensure that all the 10 MPs who are dismissed from the party defend and retain their seats but on the UDM ticket. “We will wait for the court decision. But if ten of us go for by-elections on the UDM ticket, we shall all win,” Ruto said.
Yesterday the IIEC chairman Ahmed Issack Hassan said the commission is ready and that Sh1.8 billion would be needed to conduct the by-elections.
Isaack said the by-elections would give the commission an opportunity to test its programmes and structures even as it prepares for the 2012 general elections. He said the commission will apply for a special budget allocation from Treasury if the seats fall vacant. “At the moment we have no money to go into such an election but if such a situation arises then we shall definitely be in a position to handle it. At least we have the structures to do it,” Isaack said.
Speaking from Lagos, Nigeria. where he is on official trip to study how the electronic voting system worked during that country’s recent elections, commission secretary Major (rtd) James Oswago said the commission budget allocation does not anticipate holding such a large number of by-elections at once. “We were given a budget that can only allow us to conduct up to seven by-elections but if the MPs resign in such a big number or if the courts annul their elections then we shall go to Treasury for more money to conduct the by- elections,” Oswago said.
He however warned conducting such a large number of by-elections at once would force the commission to slow down on its preparations for the general elections next year. “If MPs or the courts put us into such a situation, then it means our preparations for the 2012 polls will be interrupted,” Oswago said .
He estimated that a by-election would cost taxpayers an average of Sh50 million per constituency and would take up to four months to prepare and get it done.
Yesterday close Ruto sources said the strategists were considering which among the Ruto ODM allies were strong enough to be able to survive a by-election. These are the ones who will be expected to resign as they are assured of reclaiming their seats.
Ruto, Charles Keter (Belgut), Zakayo Cheruiyot (Kuresoi), Aden Dualle (Dujis) are considered among those who can survive the by-elections. Others are Isaac Rutto (Chepalungu), Benjamin Langat (Ainamoi), Moses Lesonet (Eldama Ravine). “We will fund the elections of these three since their biggest problem is lack of resources,” said our sources.
Former nominated MP Mark Too said he was trying to reconcile Gen (Rtd) John Koech with Ruto whose allies claim to have ousted the former soldier as UDM chairman.
Too said he had also attempted to reconcile Raila with Ruto. “I have been calling Raila so many times. But every time I get him he keeps telling me, let’s wait, let’s wait,” Too said.
Keter confirmed his group were preparing themselves for possible by-elections. “The ground is ready for a by-election. The situation on the ground is such that any one of us who resigns is assured of getting back to Parliament because the people will not allow anybody to oppose us. They want us to finish our term,” he said.
Keter said they would however minimize the number of MPs resigning to ensure some of their allies are left in Parliament to push the UDM’s parliamentary agenda.
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