VICE-PRESIDENT Kalonzo Musyoka would be the big winner if Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto were forced to pull out of the presidential race this year. A new survey by polling company Strategic Research indicates that Kalonzo would get around 20.9 per cent of the vote compared to Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s 36.5 per cent. However the poll interestingly indicates most Kenyans believe that Uhuru and Ruto should be allowed to contest the presidency, with 61 per cent saying they should be allowed to stand and 39 per cent saying no.
The Strategic Research poll interviewed 2433 randomly selected people across Kenya between January 27 and 30 on behalf of the Star and Radio Africa group. It is the first opinion poll to be conducted since charges were confirmed against Deputy PM Uhuru, Eldoret North MP Ruto, former Civil Service boss Francis Muthaura and radio presenter Joshua Sang on January 23.
There had been expectations of a sympathy vote for Uhuru and Ruto after the ICC charges were confirmed but it is not apparent in the poll as the ratings are similar to last year’s surveys. If they were all standing, 36.9 per cent said they would vote for Raila; 23.9 per cent for Uhuru; 10.6 per cent for Ruto; 9.7 per cent for Kalonzo; 4.6 per cent for Martha Karua; 2.6 per cent for Peter Kenneth; 2.1 per cent for George Saitoti; 1.8 per cent for Eugene Wamalwa; 1.8 per cent for Musalia Mudavadi; and 1.2 per cent for Raphael Tuju.
Kalonzo would make the biggest jump if Uhuru and Ruto are disqualified from running for president by the ICC charges. Raila’s share would hardly change at 36.5 per cent but Kalonzo would jump to 20.9 per cent with Martha Karua third on 8.1 per cent; George Saitoti on 8 per cent; Eugene Wamalwa on 5.2 per cent, Raphael Tuju on 2.7 per cent; and Musalia Mudavadi on 2.5 per cent.
At the moment therefore the most likely outcome will be a second round run-off in the presidential poll with Raila facing either Uhuru or Kalonzo. If Central fronts a single candidate candidate, the clear front runner would be Martha Karua. She was the preferred candidate of 46.5 per cent of respondents with Peter Kenneth second on 37 per cent. Other Central politicians were far behind: John Michuki was preferred by 1.8 per cent; George Saitoti by 1 per cent; Kiraitu Murungi by 1 per cent; and Amos Kimunya with 0.7 per cent.
But among Central Province and Nairobi respondents, Peter Kenneth led Martha Karua by 53.1 per cent to 37.9 per cent, and 41.7 per cent to to 36.7 per cent respectively. Some Central hardliners have been advocating for a constitutional amendment to allow President Kibaki to run for a third term. But ut would do them little good.
If Kibaki was running again, according to the poll, Raila would get 38.6 per cent of the vote; Kibaki 17 per cent; Uhuru 15.5 per cent; Kalonzo 7.1 per cent; Karua 5.6 per cent: Ruto 5.5 per cent; Kenneth 2.5 per cent; Mudavadi 2 per cent; Saitoti 1.9 per cent; and Wamalwa 1.5 per cent. And in a final unexpected twist, 58.7 per cent of respondents said Uhuru should retain his position as Deputy PM with only 33.9 per cent saying he should resign. The poll indicated that support for politicians varied little among age groups.
However there were big regional shifts with Uhuru supported by 77.8 per cent of Central; Raila by 72.3 per cent of Nyanza; Kalonzo by 41.4 per cent of Eastern; and Ruto by 30.1 per cent of Rift. Raila’s overall strength appeared to come from his national support with a lead of 41.7 per cent in Nairobi; 42 per cent in Coast; 51.7 per cent in North East; and 62 per cent in Western.
In 1999 Strategic Research we conducted the first political opinion poll in Kenya and has since undertaken more than 100 opinion polls on topical issues. Its clients have included the American government, the International Republican Institute, UNIFEM, Community Aid and many other institutional clients. The poll of 2,433 respondents was conducted with a representative demographic spread across all regions of Kenya.
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